Sunday, January 31, 2021

What a month!

January 2021 - I do not recall whether I have experienced a more eventful month in capital market.  

  1. Two days after my Jan 4's post of prediction of Georgia Senate race, Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, an unprecedented event caused by internal forces (Brits did "storm" and burn the White House and Capitol in 1814.
  2. Four days after my "bold" 2021 prediction on bitcoin, it conquered 40K milestone, realizing one of my predictions, offsetting the miss in Georgia Senate race where two Democrats won the close ones.    
  3. On the same day that I wrote my first 2021 blog, Moderna came back with a vengence, recovered lost ground and realized a whopping 65% gain in one month
  4. Jan 13, GameStop stock began the unbelievable and again unprecedented run from 20$ to 325$.  Along the way, it mutates into Occupy Wall Street sequel.  Along the way, it formed Bang with AMC, BB, NOK.  The short squeeze even sprinkled to AAL, SBUX, and GM.  It might destabilize the existing financial system, augmenting a potential systemic risk.  However the us vs them battle is unprecedented at this level.  It has the same decentralizing effect as the very bitcoin

Here you go.  In just 19 working days, we have witnessed events of a lifetime.  Where do we go from here?  I am brave enough to bring out my crystal ball:

  1.  GameStop rocket will stop climbing in one week and start downward spiral
  2. Biden's relief package will pass with the $1,400 (not 2K) for the qualified and $300 per week extended to September
  3.  Moderna will continue to go up and may double.  The U.S. government ordered 300M doses at 15$ each.  
  4. February will be a tough month for the equity market
  5. The real impact of GME saga is that it might have paved the path for more regulations, under which the general market unlikely performs well

So what to do with this unfriendly environment for equity market.  Vaccines!  Try to focus on vaccines, its impact, its stocks, and the industry it will for sure help.

 

No comments: