2021 Looking Ahead

Trump's call with Georgia Secretary of State put a nail on the coffin of his presidency.  The Hawley, Cruz stunt would add virtually nil to the political landscape except that Josh Hawley might have inked his ambition to run for the next presidential race.  With this, all eyes on Georgia's runoff.  Or no runoff.  My prediction is that Republican will keep the Senate and the Street will be back to another rally till February.  Then all eyes on vaccines.  My prediction is that by June the U.S. will be a different country from the one wrecked by Trump's inability to manage or should I say to apply idiotic ideological mandates to let non-technocrats to screw up large scale programs one after another, the latest being vaccine distribution.  Biden's appointees are not necessarily all capable technocrats but still beat idiots like Navarro.  

If vaccine distribution logistic and manufacturing quality issues could be addressed, leisure industry will be the major beneficiary. There were a couple of attempts to run up these stocks last year but the market failed to maintain the momentum and instead money flew to high flyers subsequent to each of these rallies.  

I am not as pessimistic as the business world is flooded with cash thanks to the Fed.  Reading "Stress Test" by Tim Guithner, I re-confirmed my belief that the U.S. can always print itself out of any crisis as long as dollar is still the reserve currency.  However the zero interest money policy will push a lot more investment into crypto-currency.  And Bitcoin is the reserve currency - to quote Cathy Woods' words.  Etherum might be a distant second, just looking at the recovery curve - it only recovered to the 75% of the previous high as compared with Bitcoin making new high after another.  

So here are my crazy 2021 predictions at the beginning of 2021:

1. Georgia Senate race will produce one Democrat and one Republican which will allow Senate to maintain in the hands of Republicans
2. Market will generate >20% return if the rates are kept at the current level
3. Bitcoin will reach 40K
4. The easiest leisure ETF to bet on is JETS